Trend Spotting and CI

Estelle Métayer is an expert in Competitive and Strategic Intelligence. Her research focuses on how managers, CEOs, and board members build and improve their strategic planning and/or competitive intelligence function to avoid strategic blindspots.  An adjunct professor for McGill University, she teaches with Henry Mintzberg in the International and national Advanced Leadership Programs and the International Master for Health Leadership.Prior to selling the company in 2004, Estelle was the president and founder of Competia (in 1988), the leading training organization for executives and analysts in Strategic Intelligence. Competia.com became the world's largest community, portal and magazine for strategy professionals. She speaks French, English, German, Dutch, Italian and Arabic. She is also a mother, a commercial pilot and flight instructor. Here are excerpts from an interview with Estelle Metayer, a former consultant at the international Strategic Consulting firm McKinsey & Company.Abhijit: Isn’t Competitive Intelligence (C I ) really a smart term for peeking into companies’ secrets ? Estelle: In the past, it is true that many people confused Competitive Intelligence (C.I.)for illegal gathering of data about competitors. In reality, today, all the people I work with are analysts or managers who are focusing on analyzing the information that is publicly available. In fact, I would argue that the work has shifted from “competitor” analysis to “strategic”  analysis as people realize there is more value in scrutinizing the industry, the future trends, than focusing on the competitor. Abhijit: What are the different kinds of Intelligence organizations should be gathering regularly and how should they go about doing it? Estelle: Can I quote from an article I wrote for the Ivey Management Review : “CI functions can take different forms and shapes. In some organizations, the team will be responsible for screening market changes and announcements and profiling competitors. In others, the team will act as a task force working on specific, time-limited issues (e.g. doing due diligence for an acquisition). There is no good or bad model; it all depends on what the company needs (…)Here are the four “families” of Competitive Intelligence I can describe (quoted from the same article):“TACTICAL-URGENT: The objective is to provide rapid hits to the operating people and to rapidly generate additional revenue. A small company in Canada subcontracting work to the aerospace industry uses the list of contacts provided by the CI cell to build a list of international prospects.TACTICAL-ONGOING: The goal is to provide different departments in the organization with the information they need on a regular basis. This could include updating a competitor's profile and gathering annual reports or screening contracts that will win a meaningful market share. To raise employee awareness, a company will then communicate the profiles throughout the organization.STRATEGIC-URGENT: Calling for bold moves, management will mostly need support in terms of business development. Analysts will focus most particularly on due diligence for acquisitions, or the identification and screening of potential partners. In a large electronics company, the CI team works solely for the Chief Executive Officer and the Chief Financial Officer, helping them value potential acquisitions.STRATEGIC-ONGOING: The objective is to support strategic initiatives, but those that are less urgent. For example, analysts in this mode would be looking at long-term market development ideas or extending product lines. Most biotechnology firms in Canada would work under this framework.” Abhijit: What do you see as the changes in the role of the Leader in the next 2-3 years?Estelle: It will be about getting back to basics around Corporate Management, Inspiring Teams and Innovating. It is about stepping back to look beyond the next quarter to pick up longer-term trends. Competitive Intelligence is not just the role of the CEO. It is the what each leader must do. The leader has to look beyond his or her own industry to create new business models, pick up on trends that have not yet been identified – not even by the consumer.It will also be critical for managers to be able to question their assumptions, especially around the way they define their industry. Take for example the example of the passenger rail transportation industry. Business opportunities are everywhere. Why define the industry as “transporting people” ? Why not assume the key asset is the ability to have passengers “locked-up” in a space for a few hours … imagine the possibilities . You could offer them executive training (partnering with universities) while they commute. The railroad should pay the people to travel while the Exec Education companies pay the railroad to have access to this captive audience ! Abhijit: How does one pick up trends?Estelle: Getting intelligence is the easy bit. The bigger skill is to focus on how and what to analyze, on the filters and antennae you set up as information floods to your desk. It is about both spotting patterns, but also at the same time the weak signals that fall out of the pattern. In companies, the first challenge is to not be biased when you look at information you do not understand, but instead to trigger the process to look at the unexpected. In case of organizations, the second challenge is to put this information through processes and assign roles to people to work with this information to apply it to a real world problem.Abhijit: Can we teach people to be better trend spotters?Estelle: We can teach people very easily where to look for these tools. The challenge is for people to find time to reflect. Mintzberg mentions in his last book, “Managing”, research showing that “ middle managers been able to work for at least a half hour without interruption only once every two days” .. yes ... only thirty minutes every two days to reflect.The best trendspotters are people who have this insatiable curiosity. It is not about age, background or education.  You could have older people who possess a sharp curious mind and younger people who don't. Prof Henry Mintzberg (at McGill University), Klaus Schwab (at the World Economic Forum) and Paulo Coelho in my mind are great examples and inspiration of people who continue to be curious and have an innate ability to tap into trends. Paulo Coelho for example, is one of the first to have used twitter to interact with his readers (over 300,000 followers @paulocoelho), or to identify and promote pirate sites that offer his books illegally electronically on the Internet (http://paulocoelhoblog.com/pirate-coelho/ ) a great example about how you can have the courage and the vision to question your own industry…Some professions understand trends faster than others - journalists, artists, architects and, of course, restaurants chefs. Ten years back, before the 10-mile diet” or Starbucks , chefs were able to pick up the trend of people wanting to go back to nature, and knowing where their food came from. They looked for farmers who grow organic foods. They put the name of the farmer on the menus…Abhijit: You work with Prof Henry Mintzberg. What does he do to stay tuned to trends?Estelle: He reads - pretty much everything. He spends time EVERY morning just reading and reflecting. He is not arrogant and willing to learn from any one. He has spent days observing a shop floor worker and learnt enough to write a book about what he observed and learned.Abhijit: How do you spend your free time?Estelle: I am a member of three different book clubs. I am currently reading about Zimbabwe. I am a pilot. So I love reading books about great pilots and airplanes. I am a huge supporter of local libraries and spend hours flipping through books I would never come across otherwise- I pick a new section each time. I read magazines on travel, technology and of course teen magazines. They are usually quick to spot a trend. I also love to paint – or even more accurately, the process of creating so I have joined an art class. I spend time with friends. I study Arabic. And I love to fly.Abhijit: How do you manage your time – between teaching, traveling, reading, painting, flying, learning languages, being a mother and much more?It is a constant struggle. Lifestyle balance is probably the biggest challenge of our time – especially for a woman. I am very organized and set up specific “private” and “professional “ times which I respect. I have the immense privilege to be working for my own company, so where I spend my time is completely under my control. I have set-up certain months where work is a priority, and others where I take time to step back and reflect.---------------------You can follow Estelle on twitter.com/competia